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6. Budget scenarios 2017

Budget scenarios
  • In the table below three scenarios based on the % increase in university income are presented. These include the following:
    • Adjusted for macro assumptions. It is preliminary figures, and certain assumptions will still be updated/adjusted.
    • Various scenarios for a possible increase in student fees are presented:
      1. 0% adjustment: budgeted shortfall of R49,8m in 2017. It should be taken into consideration that the impact of the  0% increase for 2016 is not limited to that specific year only. It will have an effect beyond 2019, and even later if SU should experience another year of no increase in annual income.
      2. Adjustment equal to CPI (6,42%): budgeted shortfall of R9,5m in 2017
      3. Adjustment equal to the Higher Education Price Index (HEPI) which amounts to CPI plus 1,7%: budgeted surplus of R1,1m in 2017.

NOTE:

  1. None of these scenarios has a budgeted surplus in 2018 and beyond.
  2. These scenarios present the “status quo”, meaning that only current activities can be funded, with no additional funding towards any new activities or more funding for bursaries.
*CPI = CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

**The inflation rate in the higher education sector is some 1,7% higher than CPI as a result of expensive facilities and imported equipment as well as international research publications. See section on Making sense of funding in the SA higher education sector for more information.

Accommodation 2017

Various scenarios for a possible increase in accommodation fees are presented:

  • 0% adjustment: budgeted shortfall of R35,4 million in 2017. It should be taken into consideration that the impact of the  0% increase for 2016 is not limited to that specific year only. It will have an effect beyond 2019, and even later if SU should experience another year of no increase in annual income.
  • Adjustment equal to CPI (6,42% forecast for 2017): budgeted shortfall of R18,2 million in 2017
  • Adjustment equal to the Higher Education Price Index (HEPI) which amounts to CPI plus 1,7%: budgeted shortfall of R13,6 million in 2017.
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