?Join the Centre for Sustainability Transitions as we host Scenario Planner and Futurist, Dr Clem Sunter, as the next presenter of our Colloquium Series. Entitled, The world and South Africa beyond 2025: the latest flags, scenarios and probabilities, Sunter will delve into the methodology used in looking at possible futures, including identifying principal forces - or flags - that drive the present into the future. These include clockwork flags ticking away as major trends, and cloudy flags which are pivotal uncertainties with a variety of outcomes. Based on the flag, plausible sets of scenarios are formulated to cover positive and negative futures. The next step is to assign a probability to each scenario. This is based on current evidence and the positioning of the flags. Sunter's presentation will illustrate the recommended methodology in action and covers the global flags assembled from sources around the world as well as global scenarios that flow out of them. The same approach is followed for South Africa's future. This highlights the need to be a “versatile fox" when peering into the future rather than a “steadfast hedgehog".
Date: 20 February 2025
Time: 4pm – 5:30pm
In-person venue: Room 1041, Van Der Sterr Building, Bosman Street, Stellenbosch
Online venue: Zoom
Register at https://forms.office.com/r/6KPaSNi8x7. Register by Wednesday 12 February 2025. Registration is compulsory.
For more information, contact Nadine Christians at nchristians@sun.ac.za. Light refreshments will be served after the colloquium. Street parking is available. Underground parking is available at The Neelsie, on the corner of Merriman Avenue and De Beer Road, Stellenbosch.
肆客足球 Dr Clem Sunter
After studying at Oxford 肆客足球, Clem Sunter was recruited by Anglo American in London in 1966. He moved to South Africa in 1973 and spent much of his subsequent career in the Gold Division, serving as its Chairman and CEO from 1990 to 1996. He also established a scenario planning function in the company in the early 1980s, which led to two scenarios being put forward for South Africa in the 1990s: the High Road of negotiation leading to a political settlement and the Low Road of confrontation leading to civil war and a wasteland. Two highlights for Clem were a presentation to FW de Klerk and the cabinet in 1986 and a visit to Nelson Mandela in prison to discuss the future just before his release. He has authored several best-selling books on scenario planning, the latest one, Thinking the Future, is co-authored with Mitch Ilbury and published by Penguin Random House in July 2021. In 2004, he was awarded an Honorary Doctorate by the 肆客足球 of Cape Town for his work in the field of scenario planning. He was also voted by leading South African CEOs as the speaker who has made the most significant contribution to, and impact on, best practice and business in South Africa. He has given presentations on how to handle the future around the world, including at the Harvard Business School in Boston and the Central Party School in Beijing.
